Market Context - November 6

After a powerful 400-plus-point advance through mid-October and a cooling pullback into early November, the index complex sits in balance. The tone across markets this morning feels like quiet tension—everyone waiting for the dam of missing data to break.

The continuing government shutdown has frozen the normal rhythm of economic releases: payrolls, CPI, retail-sales, and GDP reports are all stuck in queue. For traders, that means no new macro catalyst—only technical structure and relative strength to navigate. Right now, price is the story.

Volatility says the same. UVXY’s daily chart shows the mid-October spike fading fast; it has slid back into the 10–11 range that defined the summer. Each rally attempt has been sold. Unless price reclaims the 11.10 zone, volatility remains suppressed; a decisive move under 10.20 confirms the current calm regime. This compression explains why every intraday break in ES and NQ has struggled to extend—there’s simply no fresh fuel until data flow resumes.

In SPY and QQQ, the 21-EMA on the daily timeframe continues to hold. Both have tested that moving average over the last two sessions, producing smaller candles and lower volume—classic indecision. Bulls need confirmation via range expansion and strong breadth; bears need a failed breakout to press lower.

Turning to futures, as shown on the 30-minute ES structure, the key battlefield is tight but well-defined. ES has carved a range between 6750 support and 6850 resistance after Tuesaday’s breakdown and Wednesday’s recovery. A convincing breakout above 6850 on volume—and a successful hold on retest—would confirm renewed strength and target the late-October highs near 6920–6940. Failure or quick rejection of that breakout sets up a fade back toward 6780 and 6750.

NQ mirrors that rhythm with the 26 000 zone as its decisive pivot. Only sustained trade above 26 000 opens the path higher; below 25 600 we remain in chop. SPY aligns near 680–685 for resistance, QQQ between 625 and 627 for breakout confirmation, and both lean on their 21-EMA as the short-term floor.

For today, my focus is on reaction, not prediction. If these resistance bands break and hold, I’ll look for continuation plays on retests; if they fake out and fail, the plan shifts immediately to reversal setups targeting the prior day’s open or low. With major data delayed and volatility contained, levels are the only truth worth trading.

As we open, UVXY’s behavior remains the early tell. A stall in downside momentum there could hint that volatility expansion is near. The moment economic data begin to drop, positioning will reset fast—and these same zones (ES 6850 / NQ 26 000) will decide who wins that repricing.

Shawn

Disclosure

The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading and investing in financial markets involve substantial risk, and it is important to conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. The author is not responsible for any financial losses or gains that may result from actions

Trading futures, stocks, and options involves significant risk and is not suitable for all investors. This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.