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ES & NQ Combined Outlook – Post Friday Recap & Current Ranges

August 8, 2025




Market Context


From July 31 to August 1, both ES and NQ posted back-to-back heavy red daily bars, marking a sharp two-day sell-off.


What followed? A V-shaped recovery, pushing both indices back toward higher ground.


On Friday, NQ showed clear relative strength—leading the upside and dragging ES higher in the process.


📊 Side-by-side chart analysis:


  • NQ: Now trading very close to the high from the sell-off day and nearly closing the gap entirely.

  • ES: Still lags behind, with part of the sell-off gap yet to be filled.Current Key Ranges


NQ (Nasdaq Futures)


  • Consolidation zone: 23,653 – 23,750

  • This is a tight range with low reward-to-risk if trading inside.


Preferred Approach:


  • Avoid trading inside the range unless fading edges with tight stops.

  • Breakout above 23,750 → potential long opportunity (smaller size due to August breakout risk).

  • Breakdown below 23,653 → consider shorts, but only with confirmed structure.



ES (S&P 500 Futures)


  • Key support: 6400

  • No-trade zone: 6410 – 6430 (Sunday evening & pre-market range)


Preferred Approach:


  • Hold above 6400 → avoid shorts; wait for upside breakout structure.

  • Break below 6400 with momentum → short setup opens up.

  • Avoid trading in the mid-range chop.


Execution Mindset


  • Structure First → No bias without a clear technical setup.

  • Direction Neutral → Will trade either side, but only at range extremes or on confirmed breakouts/breakdowns.


Intraday Read:


  • If NQ breaks its range high → ES may follow to the upside.

  • If NQ fails at range high → could pressure ES back toward key supports.



Bottom Line


We’re mid-range in both ES and NQ, with well-defined highs and lows.


The best trades will come outside these ranges.


Inside them? Expect chop and false signals.


Patience is not optional—let the market show its hand


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⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making any trading or investment decisions.



 
 
 

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