Market Context – August 25

📰 The Story So Far

Friday’s Jackson Hole session gave us fireworks.

• NQ surged 300 points (23,340 → 23,640) before stalling into consolidation.

• ES rallied 50 points off support (6415 → 6495) before pulling back.

That strength carried into the Sunday open—but since then, the story has shifted.

👉 NQ has been making lower highs.👉 ES is compressing inside a tight band.

Both markets are now at decision levels, where patience matters more than prediction.

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📈 NQ – Digesting the Breakout

Friday’s surge was impressive, but as of this morning, NQ has retraced ~30–35% of that move.

• Current price: near 23,460

• The uptrend isn’t broken—but the pressure is testing buyers.

Key Levels – NQ

• 23,580 = Long Trigger

  • Break and hold above = buyers back in control

  • 🎯 Target: 23,640 (Friday high), then potential extension

• 23,450 = Pivot Support

  • ✅ Hold above → buyers defend

  • ❌ Lose this → short setups open

• 23,380–23,400 = Balance Zone

  • Could act as a sticky support/retest

  • Risk of trapping shorts

• 23,340 = Line in the Sand

  • Friday’s breakout base

  • ❌ If lost, bullish trend cracks → downside confirmed

🧭 NQ Scenarios

• ✅ Long bias: Only above 23,580, with structure confirmation

• 🔻 Short bias: Below 23,450, targeting 23,400 then 23,340

• 🚨 If 23,340 fails, the trend flips to bearish

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ES – Compression After the Rally

ES showed strength Friday, but Monday pre-market put us back into chop:

• Friday’s bounce: 6415 → 6495

• Now trading around 6460, which lines up with the Aug 19 open on the daily

This is where traders get trapped if they push inside noise.

Key Levels – ES

• 6460–6475 = No-Trade Zone

  • Too tight, too choppy. Avoid unless structure clears

• Above 6475 = Long Setup

  • Reclaim and hold

  • 🎯 Targets: 6495 (Friday high) → 6510 extension

• Below 6460 = Short Setup

  • Breakdown confirms sellers taking control

  • 🎯 Target: 6430 first, then possibly lower if momentum builds

🧭 ES Scenarios

• ✅ Long bias: Above 6475 with confirmation

• 🔻 Short bias: Below 6460, targeting 6430

• 🚫 Inside 6460–6475 = patience, no edge

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🎯 Key Takeaway

• NQ: Pullback mode after Jackson Hole surge; 23,450 is the pivot.

• ES: Compression after Friday’s rally; 6460–6475 is the trap zone.

👉 The best trades will come outside these ranges.Inside them = chop, frustration, false signals.

Patience protects capital.Structure reveals opportunity.Let the market show its hand.

— Shawn

Disclosure

The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading and investing in financial markets involve substantial risk, and it is important to conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. The author is not responsible for any financial losses or gains that may result from actions

Trading futures, stocks, and options involves significant risk and is not suitable for all investors. This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.