Market Context: ES & NQ Market Outlook – August 18
- Shawn Ray
- Aug 18
- 1 min read
Both ES and NQ have spent the last five sessions locked in range-bound trade, but their structures show subtle differences worth noting.
1️⃣ ES (S&P Futures)
Stuck in a 30-point range between 6450–6480 since Aug 13.
6450 = Key support. Holding above keeps downside limited. A break below could open a move toward 6420.
6480 = Resistance. A breakout above signals momentum back to the upside.
6465–6480 = Chop zone. Low reward-to-risk; best to avoid.
📌 Bias:
✅ Above 6480 → Long setups open.
❌ Below 6450 → Short setups open.
🚫 Between → Patience.
2️⃣ NQ (Nasdaq Futures)
Similar five-day range, but weaker structure than ES.
Clear lower highs since Aug 13 → showing pressure building.
Currently sitting below 23,750, a critical pivot and already beneath the July 31 sell-off zone.
📌 Bias:
❌ If NQ fails 23,750 → downside toward 23,600, possibly lower.
✅ If NQ reclaims 23,890 → upside momentum into 24,000.
⚠️ False-break risk: If ES holds 6450, NQ may attempt breakdowns but bounce back with bottoming tails.
3️⃣ Combined Read
Downside Trade: Only if ES breaks 6450 and NQ fails 23,750. Both must align.
Upside Trade: ES breaking above 6480 and NQ reclaiming 23,890 = push toward 24,000.
Neutral/Chop: Inside current ranges → avoid forcing trades.
🎯 Takeaway:
ES is compressed, NQ is weaker, but both are sitting at make-or-break levels. The clean trades will only come from breakouts or breakdowns outside the range, not from the chop inside.
Shawn
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